军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长的影响

军民融合新创企业是推动我国国防建设和社会经济融合发展的重要力量，军民融合社会关系网络具有丰富的异质性资源，可以有效促进军民融合新创企业成长。借鉴社会网络理论，构建以关系深度、关系广度、关系高度为代表的军民融合社会关系网络、耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长理论模型，通过对收集的304份军民融合新创企业问卷数据进行实证分析，结果发现：军民融合社会关系网络对军民融合新创企业成长具有正向影响；耦合共生在军民融合社会关系网络与军民融合新创企业成长间发挥中介作用；创业导向显著调节耦合共生与军民融合新创企业成长的关系。     

Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.     

机制设计中的履约理论研究综述

显示原理和履约理论是机制设计理论中的两大基石。履约理论把社会选择规则和博弈论联系起来，确保计划者预设的社会目标可以实现。马斯金首先提出了纳什履约理论的充分必要条件，即马斯金单调性和无否决权，随后其他学者提出了其它均衡策略的履约条件。文章论述了履约理论的产生背景和过程，分析了完全信息和不完全信息两种情形下不同的均衡策略履约条件及其精炼，并讨论了履约理论的局限性和未来的研究方向。     

A tourist kit ‘made in Italy’: An ‘intelligent’ system for implementing new generation destination cards

This study investigates the advantages and the potentiality of the ‘tourist kit’, an Italian solution based on the concept of a prepaid card that is issued by a large postal operator. The destination card can be reloaded by tourists according to their needs and its validity is not restricted to short periods. Thus, the kit provides tourists with an integrated, practical, and flexible tool capable of making their stay more enjoyable as it allows cardholders to choose and buy many products and services at discounted prices. The kit creates customer loyalty by utilising smart technology aimed at collecting accurate tourist information. This model deserves attention because it is probably the world's first case of a large postal operator entering the tourism sector with the proposal of an integrated and advanced destination card scheme. This research also discusses interesting opportunities and challenges related to the implementation of new generation tourist cards.     

网络组织流程协同效应的生成机理研究

文章主要对网络组织流程协同效应的生成机理进行深入研究。鉴于学术界对网络组织流程没有统一的认识，文章在文献分析和逻辑推理的基础上，首先明确界定了网络组织流程的内涵，进而构建了网络组织流程协同效应的概念模型，最后应用多层次回归分析对所采集的数据进行实证分析，验证网络组织流程协同效应的研究假设。结果表明，网络中结点企业间的关系强度正向影响流程协同效应，而网络组织的治理机制在关系强度与流程协同之间起着调节作用，跨组织信息系统起着部分调节作用。该结论对于网络组织的治理实践具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

技术创新网络多维邻近性演化研究

研究技术创新网络多维邻近性是否伴随创新网络生命周期不同发展阶段而呈现出不同演化特征，对创新网络内部伙伴选择、关系治理和创新绩效发展具有重要意义。基于IBM专利合作网络数据，运用Feature Selection方法，从地理邻近、社会邻近、技术邻近、组织邻近和制度邻近5个维度分析技术创新网络多维邻近性演化特征。结果表明：①生命周期视角下，在创新网络创生阶段，企业选择合作伙伴时主要考虑技术邻近性和组织邻近性，成长阶段主要考虑地理邻近性，成熟和衰退阶段主要考虑社会邻近性；②演化视角下，地理邻近性与技术邻近性曲线呈倒U型关系，地理邻近性在成长期达到最高点，技术邻近性在成熟期达到最高点；制度邻近性与组织邻近性呈U型关系，制度邻近性在成长期达到最低点，组织邻近性在成熟期达到最低点;社会邻近性则随着创新网络生命周期发展一直呈上升态势。     

Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition

We propose a new methodology for predicting electoral results that combines a fundamental model and national polls within an evidence synthesis framework. Although novel, the methodology builds upon basic statistical structures, largely modern analysis of variance type models, and it is carried out in open-source software. The methodology is motivated by the specific challenges of forecasting elections with the participation of new political parties, which is becoming increasingly common in the post-2008 European panorama. Our methodology is also particularly useful for the allocation of parliamentary seats, since the vast majority of available opinion polls predict at national level whereas seats are allocated at local level. We illustrate the advantages of our approach relative to recent competing approaches using the 2015 Spanish Congressional Election. In general, the predictions of our model outperform the alternative specifications, including hybrid models that combine fundamental and polls models. Our forecasts are, in relative terms, particularly accurate in predicting the seats obtained by each political party.     

Estimating Technical Efficiency and Production Risk under Contract Farming: A Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Dominance Methodology

We investigate production risk, technical efficiency and risk attitudes amongst contract and independent farmers. We use a Bayesian parametric approach and stochastic dominance quantile regression methods to compare technical efficiency and risk attitude of smallholders in Nepal. Using farm‐level data, we find that contract farmers appear to show lower inefficiency and lower production risk. Additionally, contract and independent farmers can increase output by reducing the scale of operation. Regardless of the commodity produced and farming arrangement (contract or independent production), we find that labour, land and other inputs are risk‐augmenting, while the role of capital is mixed. We find a second order stochastic dominance (SSD) for lentils, and first order stochastic dominance (FSD) for tomatoes, ginger and HYV paddy seed commodities. Finally, contract farmers are more risk averse than independent farmers, regardless of the commodity produced.     

高速铁路动车组检修资源布局优化研究

高速铁路网的日趋完善,高速列车开行数量的进一步增加,对高速铁路动车组检修资源布局提出新的要求。为合理优化动车组检修资源布局,提高动车组检修效率,在分析我国动车段和动车运用所管理模式及布局方案的基础上,将动车组检修资源布局优化问题转化为基于多基地车辆路径运用的基地选址问题,基于"备选运用所-运输需求-动车组运用"间的关联关系构建动车组运用检修接续网络,建立动车组检修资源布局优化模型。以某区域的铁路网为例,利用近远期规划优化动车组检修资源布局,验证模型有效性,为今后动车组检修资源布局优化提供参考。     

Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance

Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R-packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker.